Crime Opportunity Modeling in Lexington-Fayette, Kentucky
  
           Commercial Burglary
           Automobile Theft
           Automobile Larceny
           Narcotics Activity and Related Community Disorder
           Street Robbery

This research involves a multi-year collaborative initiative. Three major crime types have been targeted for intensive study. Below each component of this research is detailed.

General Contact: Dr. Gisela Bichler (PI)

Identifying the Situational Determinants of Commercial Burglary
This project involves testing whether situational factors, identified by prior research as being key targeting preferences of active commercial burglars, concentrate among hotspots, and repeat victims. Hypotheses derived from prior research will be examined at two levels. First, areas of heavy crime concentration will be identified through a multivariate analysis that selects crime hotspots by controlling for opportunity. Sites located within the highest degrees of crime intensity (surface model) will be compared to sites located in low intensity areas. Additional analyses will examine the concentration of situational determinants comparing repeat to non-repeat victims. Merging crime data (calls for service and reports) with available community level data, and information obtained through site surveys into an analysis of commercial burglary concentration will identify the situational determinants of most importance to commercial burglary. This information will provide important policy implications, inform problem-oriented policing initiatives, and enable analysts to forecast where future concentrations are expected.

Automobile Theft Forecasting
This project involves merging crime data, site level characteristics and available community level data into an analysis of automobile theft concentration. The intent is to determine whether there is a relationship between levels of opportunity for auto theft and crime concentration. This analysis will be used to forecast where future concentrations are expected based on current “crime opportunities” that are present in the area. These analyses will better equip the police department with the information and technology that is currently unattainable. From a research perspective, the study will replicate and expand upon an auto theft study conducted in Newark, New Jersey using a similar methodology, but will provide valuable information and guidance to the police department regarding auto theft forecasting. Project staff will work closely with the department regarding data sharing, as well as obtaining suggestions and feedback from officers.

Project Contact: Marissa Potchak

Bars and Cars: Diagnosing an Automobile Larceny Problem
This project will investigate the relationship between automobile theft and bars. The project, which is a branch of the Automobile Theft Forecasting project, will include a similar methodology and several similar variables, but will identify specific bars and similar places that serve not only as crime generators, but, more specifically, as automobile larceny hotspots.

Exploring Geographic Patterns of Open-Air Drug Markets in Lexington, KY.
This project will dissect narcotics activity and related disorder issues surrounding open-air retail drug markets with the purpose of testing whether these markets locate in the most “opportune” locations. Geographic analysis with computer mapping software will be used to compare actual drug markets with situational circumstances to determine whether open-air drug markets actually locate in places with the highest concentration of supportive factors identified by prior research: the presence of run down buildings, bus stops, pay phones, liquor establishments, well lit areas, places that give people legitimate reasons to loiter, and areas with quick get escape. Situational data will be collected through site visits during and linked to available data through GIS.

Targeted Street Robbery: Creating an Opportunity Model for Street Robbery
This project will investigate targeted street robbery. Factors included location, victims, perpetrators, weapon used (if any), time of day, day of week, etc. Through the analysis process, crime patterns will be ascertained and to create an opportunity model and forecast future crime problems.